Super 14: Mid-Term Reports

Thanks to Jonathan Main for providing this article on the 2008 Super 14 Tournament.

Australia

The Waratahs
Appear to be hitting their straps at just the right moment, illustrated by two home wins on the bounce against the Cheetahs and more impressively the Blues. Have yet to go on tour to SA where things will get tougher, but are handily placed, highly motivated by the news that Ewan McKenzie will not be retained as the coach for next season, and packed with test-class players so they should be able to handle the pressure and finish as the best Australian franchise again.

Key Men - Kurtley Beale, Lote Tuquri, Phil Waugh, Daniel Vickerman

My Prediction - 5th

Western Force
The franchise from the most isolated major city on earth (Perth WA) have definitely taken a step up this year and can now happily cast off the tag of “expansion franchise” – the Force are definitely for real. Former All Black coach John Mitchell is doing a great job with his fledgling team and has recruited a useful mixture of young talent and experienced old heads. Recent slump in form has put a dampener on their early season performances away from home which included two wins in SA and a win against the Blues in Albany. They now face a string of matches at home, the outcome of which will be crucial in their quest for a semi final berth.

Key Men – Matt Giteau, Drew Mitchell, Nathan Sharpe, Scott Fava

My Prediction – 7th

The Brumbies
For so long the standard-bearers for Australian rugby in the Super series, now the men from Canberra are beginning to suffer as the loss of legends George Gregan (retirement) and Stephen Larkham (French league) begins to bite hard. They have further been hampered by injuries to key test players such as Stirling Mortlock and Clyde Rathbone as well as the sad news that Julian Huxley’s career is over due to a brain tumour. Now Mortlock is back they certainly have more experience in the backline, but with a tour to SA upcoming they will struggle to make up for their indifferent form at home, where they have already lost to the Chiefs and Hurricanes. Not likely to be a factor in the final shake-up.

Key Men – Stirling Mortlock, Mark Gerrard, George Smith, Mark Chisholm

My Prediction – 10th

The Reds
Perennial contenders for the bottom of the log with the Lions and Cheetahs (from SA) this year appears little different for the hapless Reds. Peel away the surface and disregard the early season results and captaincy situation however, and you’ll find a vast improvement on last year’s series, with an impressive win against the champion Bulls and not-so-champion Highlanders in Brisbane to show for their efforts. Couple the improved home form with the encouraging signs shown on tour in SA and there are definite signs of light at the end of the long dark tunnel for the Queenslanders.

Key Men – Chris Latham, Berrick Barnes, John Roe, Stephen Moore

My Prediction – 12th

New Zealand

The Crusaders
The superlatives for this team ran out years ago! The most successful franchise in Super Rugby history, led inspirationally by the new Wallaby coach (and All Black reject) Robbie Deans, captained by the best openside fetcher (McCaw) and marshalled by the best flyhalf (Carter) on the planet they are destined to top the log already with a perfect 7 wins in 7 games. Loss of Carter to injury for a few weeks will be a blow, but still expect them to continue winning with young protégé Stephen Brett more than capable of stepping into the No. 10 jersey.

Key Men – Daniel Carter, Leon McDonald, Richie McCaw, Ali Williams

My Prediction – 1st

The Hurricanes
On paper this team is as talented as their rivals from across the Cook Strait. In practice however, they underachieve with alarming regularity. This season they are again a mixed bag, with impressive wins against the Chiefs at home and Brumbies in Canberra to go along with some pretty uninspiring performances against the Highlanders, where they edged a poor game 10-6, and Waratahs, going down 20-3 in Sydney. They have three matches on the trot in South Africa around the corner, of which they will probably need to win two to stay in the hunt – a tall order but one I expect them to complete with the array of talent at their disposal.

Key Men – Piri Weepu, Conrad Smith, Jerry Collins, Rodney So’oialo

My Prediction – 4th

The Blues
If hype were a factor in winning rugby matches the Blues wouldn’t ever lose! The anti-Crusaders, they are unashamedly cavalier in their gameplan, and rightly so with some devastating strike-runners in their ranks. This year I feel they have flattered to deceive and are being found out slowly. First up was the home loss to Western Force at Albany where they ran out of gas and ideas after pivot Nick Evans was withdrawn due to injury, then came a fortunate win in Auckland against the Stormers, followed by another referee-inspired example of daylight robbery against the Bulls. Last week they were hammered by the Waratahs in Sydney and looked jaded, next week they face the Brumbies plus they still have to play the Crusaders and Hurricanes – I can see the wheels coming off.

Key Men – Nick Evans, Isaia Toeava, Tony Woodcock, Troy Flavell

My Prediction – 6th

The Chiefs
Another talent-laden side who rarely achieve the results their player roster deserves. This year the Chiefs looked to have blown it completely with heavy losses against the Blues, Hurricanes and Stormers. Recently, however, they have shown an upturn in form and have started running in tries for fun – pummelling the Bulls 43-27 in Hamilton and the Brumbies 28-42 away from home, but it should be too late for the men from Waikato as they have difficult games coming up both at home (Crusaders) and away (Sharks).

Key Men – Brendon Leonard, Sitivini Sivivatu, Liam Messam, Sione Lauaki

My Prediction – 8th

The Highlanders
The men from the deep south have really struggled to replace their star players from last year, Carl Hayman (Newcastle Falcons) and Nick Evans (Blues). Never regular contenders, the least glamorous of the NZ franchises have a young and enthusiastic side with a powerful front row and promising outside backs, but only one win to date, and that came against fellow strugglers the Lions at the weekend. The battle for this side will be to avoid the ignominy of finishing last, which I think they can just about achieve with some luck along the way and one more victory…………… somewhere!

Key Men – Jimmy Cowan, Fetu’u Vainikolo, Jamie Mackintosh, Craig Newby

My Prediction – 13th

South Africa

The Sharks
The men from Natal are well along the path to greatness with a visionary coach in Dick Muir and a young squad of talented players lead by the experienced Springbok Johann Muller. The Sharks are SA’s best side, despite being runners-up to the stolid Bulls in last year’s competition, with a strong pack, superb defence and some real creative genius behind the scrum. The match in Christchurch against the Crusaders should be the clash of the top two and give an indicator of just how good this team is. Lack of fortune with the draw (playing home matches in Durban in March is never good for running rugby) has meant that The Sharks have only a single four-try bonus point to show for their six wins, and has therefore put some pressure on them to win most of their tour matches in order to obtain that vital home semi final. They should be good enough.

Key Men – Francois Steyn, Frederic Michalak, Johann Muller, Ryan Kankowski

My Prediction – 2nd

The Stormers
At last the men from the fairest Cape are starting to fulfil their perennial promise! The Stormers have never wanted for talent, but they have nearly always struggled to gel the group of talented individuals into a cohesive unit. They have experience in all the key positions and international class (almost) from 1 to 15, a new and innovative coach in Rassie Erasmus and some much needed steel in the tight five, a constant criticism of Stormers teams of years gone by. With a successful tour behind them, three wins from four is as good as any SA side has ever managed in the Antipodes, they now have a string of home games at Newlands against some beatable sides. The faithful will be expecting a hatful of tries and bonus points if the Stormers are to reach the semi finals, so do I.

Key Men – Peter Grant, Jean de Villiers, Schalk Burger, Andries Bekker

My Prediction – 3rd

The Bulls
The defending champions have yet to wake up to the new laws and they are being punished mercilessly by the more pro-active sides in the competition. The Bulls traditional strengths of powerhouse forward play and kicking are now not such an influence on the quicker modern game. Additionally to the law changes, they haven’t coped at all well with the loss of Victor Matfield (Toulon, France), Gary Botha (Bath Rugby) and coach Heynecke Meyer and new coach Frans Ludeke is already under severe pressure from the South African media. They have some dynamic runners behind the scrum (Habana, Kirchner) and some classy ball players, such as the severely underused pivot Morne Steyn and scrum-half Fourie du Preez, but they simply don’t get enough quality ball to work with. They will win more games, but will still finish in the lower half – a season to forget in Pretoria.

Key Men – Fourie du Preez, Bryan Habana, Bakkies Botha, Pierre Spies

My Prediction – 9th

The Cheetahs
Strong in the domestic Currie Cup competition but they always fail to take the step-up required to make an impact in Super Rugby. Coached by former Springbok hooker Naka Drotske, the Free-Staters have some exciting young talent at their disposal in blockbusting No.8 Duane Vermuelen and flyhalf Jacques-Louis Potgieter. Have been unlucky not to win on at least three occasions earlier this season, are now at home after a disappointing tour without a single win. Expect them to be tough to beat in Bloem, nobody will relish a trip there in the coming weeks.

Key Men – Falie Oelschig, Jacques-Louis Potgieter, Rory Duncan, Duane Vermuelen

My Prediction – 11th

The Lions
Damage limitation is what the coming weeks are all about for the Johannesburg-based franchise. They will be disappointed to have not won a single game at Ellis Park this year (so far) and will struggle to break that run of defeats on tour now that they have succumbed to the Highlanders. Like the Cheetahs they are good domestically and have a combative backrow combination and some skilful players behind the scrum but just lack that extra bit of test class and experience needed at this level. Heading for the basement.

Key Men – Jaco Pretorius, Louis Ludik, Cobus Grobbelaar, Ernst Joubert

My Prediction – 14th